Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-5
- Janson JunkPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramírez homered to right (346 feet).3–4
- 5Hernández doubled to left, Myers scored.3–3
- 5Myers singled to left, Edwards scored on error and Lopez scored on throwing error by left fielder Kwan, Myers to third.2–3
- 2Rocchio singled to right, Arias scored.0–3
- 1Manzardo homered to left center (391 feet).0–2
- 1Ramírez homered to right center (381 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 55%
- ML MIA +115 / CLE -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 56.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +47 Elo | CLE 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3029–30 | Road vs home | 29–2718th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 150317th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–52 | 58–59 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 20–33 |
| Underdog | 61–33 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders | 56–62 | 55–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–3 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.