Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hernández singled to left, Lopez scored and Ramírez scored, Marsee to second.6–8
- 6Baldwin singled to left, Profar scored and Williams scored, Olson to second.4–8
- 6Olson singled to right, Bruján scored, Profar to second, Williams to third.4–6
- 5Ozuna homered to left center (416 feet), Olson scored and Baldwin scored.4–5
- 5Baldwin singled to left, Profar scored, Olson to second.4–2
- 4Ozuna homered to center (433 feet).4–1
- 4Edwards singled to left, Wagaman scored and Pauley scored.4–0
- 4Wagaman singled to center, Marsee scored.2–0
- 4Marsee doubled to right, Lopez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 50%
- ML MIA -110 / ATL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.0%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATL -100
- MIA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.3 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −8 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +35 Elo | ATL 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3029–28 | Road vs home | 28–3024th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–50 | 51–65 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 31–47 |
| Underdog | 61–31 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 55–61 | 54–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–22 ATL in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 34.