Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harris II homered to right (374 feet).1–7
- 7Ozuna homered to left (422 feet), Profar scored and Olson scored.1–6
- 5Profar scored on Phillips wild pitch, Ozuna to second, Olson to third.1–3
- 5Profar scored on Phillips wild pitch, Ozuna to second on wild pitch by Phillips, Olson to third on wild pitch by Phillips.1–3
- 5Profar doubled to right, Alvarez Jr. scored.1–2
- 4Olson homered to right center (419 feet).1–1
- 2Hicks singled to right, Hill scored on error, Hicks to second, Hicks safe at third on throwing error by catcher Murphy.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 55%
- ML MIA +115 / ATL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 52.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −10 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +18 Elo | ATL 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 9th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 29–3024th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 24th of 301480 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–51 | 52–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 32–47 |
| Underdog | 61–32 | 20–18 |
| Overs–unders | 56–61 | 55–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 12–23 ATL in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 35.