Miami Marlins at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4
- Edward CabreraPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Hedges hit sacrifice fly to center, Fry scored.4–9
- 7Rocchio singled to right, Jones scored, Fry to third.4–8
- 7Fry singled to left, Arias scored, Kayfus to third.4–7
- 7Kayfus grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ramírez scored, Arias third.4–6
- 5Arias hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored.4–5
- 5Manzardo singled to left, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.4–4
- 4Hernández singled to center, Hicks scored, Lopez to second.4–3
- 1Arias grounded out to shortstop, Ramírez scored.3–3
- 1Martínez scored on Cabrera wild pitch, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Cabrera.3–2
- 1Martínez scored on Cabrera wild pitch, Ramírez to third on wild pitch by Cabrera.3–2
- 1Ramírez singled to center, Kwan scored, Martínez to third.3–1
- 1Lopez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Stowers scored on error by catcher Hedges and Ramírez scored on error.3–0
- 1Ramírez doubled to left, Edwards scored, Stowers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 53%
- ML MIA +105 / CLE -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- CLE: Elo 54.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +34 Elo | CLE 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 30–2819th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 24th of 301481 | Elo rating | 150018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–52 | 58–61 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 20–35 |
| Underdog | 63–33 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders | 57–63 | 56–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–4 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.