Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching3.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hill singled to right, Wagaman scored.5–7
- 9Wagaman tripled to left, Hernández scored.4–7
- 9Hernández singled to right, Ramírez scored.3–7
- 7Ramírez homered to left (384 feet).2–7
- 5Johnston homered to right center (419 feet).1–7
- 4Bregman singled to center, Rafaela scored.0–7
- 3Story homered to left (341 feet), Bregman scored and Duran scored.0–6
- 3Duran doubled to right, Anthony scored, Bregman to third.0–3
- 1Yoshida singled to right, Anthony scored and Story scored, Yoshida to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 63%
- ML MIA +160 / BOS -190
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 59.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -170
- MIA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 4.8 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +63 Elo | BOS 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 60.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 14th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 40–224th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 24th of 301477 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–53 | 66–57 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 30–39 |
| Underdog | 64–34 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 58–64 | 62–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–4 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.