Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsee homered to right (394 feet), Wagaman scored.5–3
- 9Myers homered to right center (385 feet).3–3
- 8Hicks singled to left, Edwards scored, Ramírez to second.2–3
- 7Toro hit sacrifice fly to left, Abreu scored.1–3
- 4Abreu homered to right (377 feet), Duran scored.1–2
- 3Wagaman homered to center (453 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 69%
- ML MIA +210 / BOS -255
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 62.4%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -223
- MIA +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 5.1 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +13 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +88 Elo | BOS 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 67.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 16th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 41–224th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150114th of 30 |
| 24th of 301476 | Elo rating | 15306th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–54 | 67–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–19 | 31–39 |
| Underdog | 64–35 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 59–64 | 63–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–5 BOS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.