Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Dubón homered to right center (377 feet), Diaz scored.2–7
- 3Báez singled to center, Dingler scored, Báez to second.0–7
- 1Báez singled to left, Dingler scored.0–6
- 1Dingler tripled to left, Greene scored.0–5
- 1Torkelson scored on Valdez wild pitch, Greene to second on wild pitch by Valdez.0–4
- 1Torkelson scored on Valdez wild pitch, Greene to second on wild pitch by Valdez.0–4
- 1Ibáñez scored on Valdez wild pitch, Torkelson to third on wild pitch by Valdez.0–3
- 1Ibáñez scored on Valdez wild pitch, Torkelson to third on wild pitch by Valdez.0–3
- 1Torkelson hit a ground rule double, Torres scored, Ibáñez to third.0–2
- 1Ibáñez singled to center, Jones scored, Torres to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML HOU -110 / DET -110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- DET: Elo 53.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -100
- HOU -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.3 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +4 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +22 Elo | DET 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3031–30 | Road vs home | 41–246th of 30 |
| 24th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–66 | 61–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 29–53 | 42–48 |
| Underdog | 31–13 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders | 59–67 | 69–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 9–10 DET in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.
- Aug 19HOU 0 @ DET 1Picked DET 59%Hit
- Aug 18HOU 0 @ DET 10Picked DET 58%Hit
- Apr 30DET 7 @ HOU 4Picked HOU 52%Miss
- Apr 29DET 4 @ HOU 6Picked HOU 51%Hit
- Apr 28DET 5 @ HOU 8Picked HOU 53%Hit
- Oct 2DET 5 @ HOU 2PlayoffsPicked HOU 62%Miss
- Oct 1DET 3 @ HOU 1PlayoffsPicked HOU 57%Miss
- Jun 16DET 1 @ HOU 4Picked HOU 60%Hit