Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Red Sox- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Basallo grounded out to catcher, J. Jackson scored.4–3
- 9Lowe homered to right center (424 feet), González scored.3–3
- 5Mountcastle scored on Weissert wild pitch, Cowser to third on wild pitch by Weissert.3–1
- 5Mountcastle scored on Weissert wild pitch, Cowser to third on wild pitch by Weissert.3–1
- 5Cowser doubled to center, Vázquez scored, Mountcastle to third.2–1
- 5Mountcastle singled to left, Holliday scored, Vázquez to second.1–1
- 3Wong scored on a disengagement violation, Anthony to third on a disengagement violation.0–1
- 3Wong scored on a disengagement violation, Anthony to third on a disengagement violation.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 57%
- ML BAL +120 / BOS -145
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- BOS: Elo 55.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- BOS -130
- BAL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 5.0 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +2 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +38 Elo | BOS 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3028–37 | Road vs home | 41–246th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15267th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–62 | 67–59 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 31–41 |
| Underdog | 43–29 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 56–69 | 64–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 19–15 BOS in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 34.