Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caratini hit sacrifice fly to left, Correa scored.2–3
- 7Vázquez homered to center (416 feet).1–3
- 6Mountcastle singled to right, Henderson scored.1–2
- 3Peña singled to center, Smith scored.1–1
- 1Henderson homered to right (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 55%
- ML HOU +115 / BAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- BAL: Elo 55.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.5 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | +18 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +37 Elo | BAL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 4th of 3034–31 | Road vs home | 30–3324th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–67 | 64–65 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 29–53 | 20–36 |
| Underdog | 34–14 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders | 63–67 | 59–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–7 BAL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 19.