Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jeremy PenaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Jeremiah JacksonBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machín homered to center (397 feet).10–7
- 8Peña doubled to center, Melton scored.10–6
- 8Caratini doubled to right, Sánchez scored and Urías scored.9–6
- 7Cowser homered to right center (417 feet).7–6
- 6J. Jackson grounded out to second, Vázquez scored, Holliday to second.7–5
- 6Holliday grounded into fielder's choice to second, Beavers scored, A. Jackson out at second, Vázquez to third.7–4
- 5Walker homered to left center (396 feet), Correa scored and Altuve scored.7–3
- 4J. Jackson doubled to center, A. Jackson scored and Beavers scored.4–3
- 4A. Jackson singled to left, Mayo scored, Beavers to second.4–1
- 3Peña homered to left (389 feet), Smith scored and McCormick scored.4–0
- 3McCormick hit sacrifice bunt, Dubón scored, McCormick to first on throwing error by pitcher Povich, Smith to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / BAL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 50.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- BAL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −22 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 6th of 3032–31 | Road vs home | 30–3124th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 149718th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–67 | 64–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–53 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 32–14 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders | 61–67 | 57–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 10–7 BAL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 17.