Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Victor CaratiniBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- AJ BlubaughPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Jackson singled to center, Beavers scored.9–8
- 7Walker homered to left (414 feet), Altuve scored.9–7
- 5Cowser homered to right center (400 feet).7–7
- 4J. Jackson homered to center (439 feet).7–6
- 3Caratini grounded out to third, Altuve scored and Sánchez scored on throwing error by first baseman Mayo.7–5
- 2Mountcastle singled to center, Beavers scored and Holliday scored, Henderson to second.5–5
- 1Cowser singled to right, J. Jackson scored and Henderson scored.5–3
- 1Henderson singled to right, Holliday scored, J. Jackson to third.5–1
- 1Caratini homered to right center (388 feet), Walker scored.5–0
- 1Sánchez homered to right center (429 feet).3–0
- 1Correa homered to left (391 feet), Peña scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML HOU +100 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.2 – 4.3 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | +14 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +28 Elo | BAL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–43rd of 30 |
| 4th of 3033–31 | Road vs home | 30–3224th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 149520th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–67 | 64–64 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 29–53 | 20–35 |
| Underdog | 33–14 | 44–29 |
| Overs–unders | 62–67 | 58–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 11–7 BAL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 18.