Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tanner GordonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Astros- Jesus SanchezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Moniak doubled to center, Karros scored and Ritter scored.6–1
- 3Goodman homered to left center (362 feet), Moniak scored.4–1
- 3Moniak singled to right, Ritter scored.2–1
- 3Freeman grounded out to first, Karros scored, Ritter to second.1–1
- 2Sánchez homered to right center (439 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 75%
- ML COL +285 / HOU -360
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 72.9%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -301
- COL +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 5.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +18 | COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +172 Elo | HOU 72.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 74.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 73.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.4 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.7 | Margin | +0.115th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 30th of 3016–49 | Road vs home | 38–2713th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 30th of 301382 | Elo rating | 151612th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–67 | 64–67 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 29–53 |
| Underdog | 62–63 | 35–14 |
| Overs–unders | 59–72 | 63–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–9 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.