Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee singled to right, Koss scored, Flores to second.3–4
- 6Adames homered to center (400 feet).3–3
- 6Busch homered to center (412 feet).3–2
- 2Swanson homered to left (410 feet).2–2
- 1Adames homered to left center (417 feet), Devers scored.1–2
- 1Happ singled to center, Tucker scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 51%
- ML CHC -105 / SF -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- SF: Elo 48.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SF -104
- CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +15 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +13 Elo | CHC 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 32–3324th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 149419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–71 | 55–78 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 41–48 | 20–55 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 35–23 |
| Overs–unders | 66–67 | 63–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–9 SF in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.