San Francisco Giants at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Contreras homered to left center (379 feet).4–5
- 9Matos scored on Megill wild pitch, Fitzgerald to second on wild pitch by Megill.4–4
- 9Matos scored on Megill wild pitch, Fitzgerald to second on wild pitch by Megill.4–4
- 8Adames homered to right (368 feet).3–4
- 7Vaughn grounded out to first, Turang scored, Yelich to second, Contreras to third.2–4
- 7Contreras doubled to right, Monasterio scored, Turang to third.2–3
- 4Vaughn scored on Whisenhunt wild pitch, Frelick out at home on runner's fielder's choice.2–2
- 4Vaughn scored on Whisenhunt wild pitch, Frelick out at home on runner's fielder's choice.2–2
- 4Vaughn scored on Whisenhunt wild pitch, Frelick out at home on runner's fielder's choice.2–2
- 4Frelick doubled to right, Yelich scored, Vaughn to third.2–1
- 2Matos homered to center (391 feet).2–0
- 1Adames homered to left (419 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML SF +150 / MIL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 64.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -161
- SF +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1576 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −4 | SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +106 Elo | MIL 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 12th of 3031–34 | Road vs home | 42–201st of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149625th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Elo rating | 15761st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–78 | 74–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–55 | 35–35 |
| Underdog | 30–23 | 39–19 |
| Overs–unders | 60–68 | 61–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–7 MIL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.