Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-3
- Cade HortonPitching2.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ortiz scored on Hollowell wild pitch, Durbin to third on wild pitch by Hollowell.7–0
- 8Ortiz scored on Hollowell wild pitch, Durbin to third on wild pitch by Hollowell.7–0
- 8Durbin grounded into fielder's choice to second, Jansen scored, Turang out at second, Ortiz to third.6–0
- 8Turang singled to right, Frelick scored, Ortiz to second, Jansen to third.5–0
- 8Ortiz reached on infield single to second, Perkins scored, Jansen to second, Frelick to third.4–0
- 6Ortiz reached on infield single to pitcher, Frelick scored on throwing error by pitcher Little, Ortiz to second, Jansen safe at third on error.3–0
- 5Durbin homered to left center (419 feet).2–0
- 3Turang homered to left (376 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 52%
- ML MIL +100 / CHC -120
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 49.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.7 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +17 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 1st of 3036–25 | Road vs home | 38–214th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 1st of 301576 | Elo rating | 15384th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–51 | 58–65 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–33 | 39–42 |
| Underdog | 37–18 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 59–64 | 62–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 19–15 CHC in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 34.