Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Reds- Austin HaysBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hays singled to left, Friedl scored, Benson to second, De La Cruz to third.2–3
- 9Trevino singled to right, Benson scored, Marte to third.2–2
- 9Contreras homered to left center (405 feet), Seigler scored.2–1
- 7Trevino hit sacrifice fly to right, Hays scored, Marte to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML MIL +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 43.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −2 | MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +44 Elo | MIL 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 1st of 3036–24 | Road vs home | 35–2814th of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 1st of 301578 | Elo rating | 151113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–51 | 66–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–33 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 36–18 | 45–21 |
| Overs–unders | 59–63 | 49–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 26–9 CIN in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 35.