Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Taijuan WalkerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching7.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schwarber homered to right (404 feet), Turner scored.4–1
- 8Turner singled to left, Wilson scored on error, Turner to second, Turner safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Lux.2–1
- 8Wilson doubled to left, Sosa scored.1–1
- 1Lux singled to right, Friedl scored, Andujar to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML PHI +110 / CIN -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- CIN: Elo 49.6%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −2 | PHI: Taijuan Walker: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +3 Elo | PHI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3031–28 | Road vs home | 33–2515th of 30 |
| 30th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 150814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–58 | 63–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–50 | 20–36 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 42–20 |
| Overs–unders | 53–64 | 47–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 9–8 CIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.