Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Reds- Miguel AndujarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harper homered to right center (410 feet).1–6
- 6Steer hit sacrifice fly to center, Trevino scored, Espinal to third.0–6
- 6Trevino singled to center, Hays scored and McLain scored.0–5
- 4Andujar homered to left (366 feet).0–3
- 3Steer doubled to left, Friedl scored and Trevino scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -150 / CIN +125
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- PHI -135
- CIN +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 5.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −4 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +32 Elo | PHI 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3032–28 | Road vs home | 33–2616th of 30 |
| 30th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301546 | Elo rating | 150614th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–58 | 63–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 44–50 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 42–20 |
| Overs–unders | 53–65 | 47–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–8 CIN in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.