Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Reds- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 11Marte homered to left (417 feet).6–5
- 11Espinal hit sacrifice fly to center, De La Cruz scored.6–4
- 11Monasterio homered to left (382 feet), Durbin scored and Turang scored.6–3
- 10Hayes hit a ground rule double, McLain scored.3–3
- 10Contreras singled to left, Seigler scored on fielding error by left fielder Fraley, Contreras to second.3–2
- 9Frelick grounded into fielder's choice to second, Turang scored on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz, Black out at second.2–2
- 6Steer homered to left center (365 feet).1–2
- 6Hayes homered to left (388 feet).1–1
- 2Turang doubled to right, Durbin scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / CIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.9%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | 0 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +48 Elo | MIL 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3035–24 | Road vs home | 35–2714th of 30 |
| 28th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149918th of 30 |
| 1st of 301577 | Elo rating | 151213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–50 | 65–58 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–32 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 36–18 | 44–21 |
| Overs–unders | 58–63 | 48–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 25–9 CIN in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 34.