Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- DL HallPitching2.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lockridge scored on Moll wild pitch.10–8
- 7Lockridge scored on Moll wild pitch.10–8
- 6Yelich homered to left (378 feet).9–8
- 4Yelich singled to left, Frelick scored and Ortiz scored, Contreras to second.8–8
- 3Turang doubled to right, Durbin scored.6–8
- 3Vaughn homered to left center (406 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.5–8
- 3Yelich doubled to left, Lockridge scored, Contreras to third.2–8
- 2Marte reached on infield single to second, Lux scored, Hays to second.1–8
- 2Hays reached on infield single to second, Andujar scored, Lux to third.1–7
- 2Lux singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Andujar to third.1–6
- 2Andujar singled to left, Steer scored, Andujar to second, De La Cruz to third.1–5
- 2De La Cruz doubled to right, Hayes scored and Friedl scored, Steer to third.1–4
- 2Steer walked, Stephenson scored, Friedl to second, Hayes to third.1–2
- 2Yelich homered to left (367 feet).1–1
- 1Lux singled to center, Steer scored, Andujar to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 55%
- ML MIL -135 / CIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.0 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +40 Elo | MIL 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.510th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3034–24 | Road vs home | 35–2614th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 1st of 301575 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–50 | 65–57 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 34–32 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 36–18 | 44–20 |
| Overs–unders | 57–63 | 47–75 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 24–9 CIN in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 33.