Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Reds- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Andujar homered to left center (364 feet), Hayes scored, Friedl scored and De La Cruz scored.0–8
- 6Marte singled to left, Marte scored on throwing error by pitcher Sánchez and Hays scored on error.0–4
- 6Hays doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.0–2
- 4Marte doubled to left, Hays scored, Marte thrown out at third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -125 / CIN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | +7 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 1.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +30 Elo | PHI 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 4th of 3032–29 | Road vs home | 34–2614th of 30 |
| 30th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301543 | Elo rating | 150913th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–59 | 64–57 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–51 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 43–20 |
| Overs–unders | 53–66 | 47–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 10–9 CIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.