Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Collins singled to right, Monasterio scored and Frelick scored.4–1
- 5Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to right, McGuire scored, Busch to third.2–1
- 2Turang homered to right center (381 feet), Yelich scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML MIL +115 / CHC -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 48.5%, market 56.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -127
- MIL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.0 – 3.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1574 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +5 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +11 Elo | MIL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 1st of 3037–28 | Road vs home | 41–225th of 30 |
| 26th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 1st of 301574 | Elo rating | 15404th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–54 | 61–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 35–35 | 40–43 |
| Underdog | 38–19 | 21–23 |
| Overs–unders | 61–66 | 64–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 20–18 CHC in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 38.