Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Busch grounded into fielder's choice to second, Shaw scored.1–4
- 5Hoerner singled to center, Happ scored, Hoerner to second, Kelly to third.1–3
- 2Busch doubled to right, Caissie scored, Busch to third.1–2
- 2Caissie singled to left, Hoerner scored.1–1
- 1Vaughn singled to center, Contreras scored, Yelich to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 53%
- ML MIL -125 / CHC +105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -114
- CHC +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.4 – 3.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −2 | MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +37 Elo | MIL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.16th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.3 | Margin | +0.92nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3037–26 | Road vs home | 39–225th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 1st of 301578 | Elo rating | 15374th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–52 | 59–66 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 35–33 | 40–43 |
| Underdog | 38–19 | 19–23 |
| Overs–unders | 60–65 | 63–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 20–16 CHC in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 36.