San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Adames homered to center (409 feet).4–8
- 6Devers homered to right center (435 feet).3–8
- 5Laureano singled to right, O'Hearn scored, Bogaerts to second.2–8
- 5Bogaerts singled to left, Machado scored, O'Hearn to third.2–7
- 5Machado doubled to center, Fermin scored and Tatis Jr. scored.2–6
- 5Fermin hit sacrifice bunt, Laureano scored and Cronenworth scored on fielding error by right fielder Matos, Fermin to first on throwing error by third baseman Schmitt.2–4
- 4Bogaerts hit sacrifice fly to left, Arraez scored, Machado to second.2–2
- 4Machado singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.2–1
- 3Ramos grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Knizner scored, Lee out at second.2–0
- 3Knizner doubled to right, Matos scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML SF +155 / SD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- SD: Elo 61.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -166
- SF +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | 0 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +78 Elo | SD 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3031–33 | Road vs home | 40–213rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 21st of 301485 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–77 | 72–55 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 20–55 | 31–38 |
| Underdog | 30–22 | 41–17 |
| Overs–unders | 59–68 | 54–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 14–24 SD in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 38.