Tampa Bay Rays at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Giants- Drew GilbertBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gilbert singled to right, Bailey scored.1–7
- 8Díaz reached on infield single to second, Feduccia scored, Simpson to second, Simpson safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Fitzgerald.1–6
- 7Fitzgerald homered to left center (398 feet).0–6
- 7Gilbert homered to right (384 feet).0–5
- 6Koss doubled to left, Smith scored.0–4
- 6Smith singled to right, Devers scored, Ramos scored and Adames scored, Smith to second.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 56%
- ML TB +115 / SF -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- SF: Elo 51.9%, market 56.0%
- Fair odds
- SF -127
- TB +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +8 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +13 Elo | SF 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 3029–33 | Road vs home | 29–3326th of 30 |
| 8th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Elo rating | 148521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–61 | 48–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–39 | 19–55 |
| Underdog | 41–22 | 29–20 |
| Overs–unders | 52–72 | 57–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 6–2 SF in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.