Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Osvaldo BidoPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to left, Mangum scored.7–4
- 7Soderstrom homered to center (414 feet), Rooker scored and Langeliers scored.6–4
- 7Caminero homered to center (419 feet).6–1
- 7B. Lowe homered to center (428 feet).5–1
- 5Langeliers homered to center (425 feet).4–1
- 4Morel homered to left center (400 feet).4–0
- 3J. Lowe hit sacrifice fly to right, Díaz scored, B. Lowe to third.3–0
- 2Fortes singled to center, Caminero scored and Pereira scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML TB -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- ATH: Elo 49.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- TB -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.8 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +9 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +1 Elo | TB 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–32 | Road vs home | 23–3428th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Elo rating | 146626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–60 | 64–56 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 12–17 |
| Underdog | 38–21 | 52–39 |
| Overs–unders | 49–70 | 63–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 10–7 ATH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.
