Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting2-3
- Shane BazPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Colby ThomasBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Butler singled to left, Thomas scored, Hernaiz thrown out at third.0–6
- 5Langeliers scored, Rooker to third on wild pitch by Baz.0–5
- 5Langeliers scored on Baz wild pitch, Rooker to third on wild pitch by Baz.0–5
- 4Butler scored on error, Urías safe at first on fielding error by catcher Fortes.0–4
- 4Butler doubled to left, Soderstrom scored.0–3
- 4Thomas hit sacrifice fly to right, Rooker scored, Soderstrom to third.0–2
- 2Thomas doubled to center, Soderstrom scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 51%
- ML TB -105 / ATH -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- ATH: Elo 48.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATH -104
- TB +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.7 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +16 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +10 Elo | TB 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.328th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 19th of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 23–3528th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 16th of 301505 | Elo rating | 146426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–60 | 64–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 12–18 |
| Underdog | 39–21 | 52–39 |
| Overs–unders | 50–70 | 64–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–7 ATH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.
