Tampa Bay Rays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hogan HarrisPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caminero homered to left (346 feet), J. Lowe scored.8–2
- 5Urshela singled to left, Thomas scored, Hernaiz to second.6–2
- 3Butler homered to left center (392 feet).6–1
- 2B. Lowe homered to left center (458 feet), Simpson scored.6–0
- 1Mangum scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers, Feduccia stole third.4–0
- 1Mangum scored on throwing error by catcher Langeliers, Feduccia stole third.4–0
- 1Mangum singled to center, Caminero scored.3–0
- 1Caminero doubled to left, J. Lowe scored.2–0
- 1J. Lowe hit a ground rule double, Simpson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML TB -150 / ATH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- TB: Elo 54.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TB -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 5.1 – 4.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +4 | TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +29 Elo | TB 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 24–3528th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 146725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–61 | 65–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–39 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 39–22 | 52–39 |
| Overs–unders | 50–71 | 64–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 11–8 ATH in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.
