San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tatis Jr. singled to left, Fermin scored, Tatis Jr. out at third on runner's fielder's choice.1–8
- 7O'Hearn homered to center (415 feet).1–7
- 4Schmitt homered to left center (379 feet).1–6
- 3Sheets homered to right (338 feet), O'Hearn scored and Laureano scored.0–6
- 3Machado homered to center (425 feet).0–3
- 2Sheets homered to right (369 feet).0–2
- 1O'Hearn singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML SF +120 / SD -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SD: Elo 55.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SD -130
- SF +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 4.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −11 | SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: JP Sears: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +41 Elo | SD 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 39–215th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–76 | 71–55 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–55 | 30–38 |
| Underdog | 30–21 | 41–17 |
| Overs–unders | 58–68 | 53–73 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 14–23 SD in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 37.