San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Padres- Ryan O'HearnBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nestor CortesPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7O'Hearn homered to center (417 feet), Iglesias scored.4–3
- 7Bogaerts scored, Iglesias safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Schmitt.4–1
- 1Flores homered to left (354 feet), Schmitt scored.4–0
- 1Devers homered to right center (405 feet).2–0
- 1Ramos homered to left (358 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SF +115 / SD -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- SD: Elo 56.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- SF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.5 – 4.0 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −9 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +44 Elo | SD 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 9th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 38–203rd of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 21st of 301488 | Elo rating | 15345th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–75 | 70–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–55 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 29–20 | 41–17 |
| Overs–unders | 58–66 | 53–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 13–22 SD in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 35.