San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kai-Wei TengPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 6Arraez grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Díaz scored, Tatis Jr. out at second.1–5
- 5O'Hearn singled to right, Machado scored.1–4
- 4Tatis Jr. walked, Sheets scored, Díaz to second, Iglesias to third.1–3
- 4Iglesias singled to left, O'Hearn scored, Sheets to second, Laureano to third.1–2
- 1Machado grounded out to third, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.1–1
- 1Lee homered to right center (400 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML SF +160 / SD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- SD: Elo 65.1%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -170
- SF +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −36 | +12 | SF: Kai-Wei Teng: team allows 1.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +109 Elo | SD 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 38–215th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 15336th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–75 | 70–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–55 | 29–38 |
| Underdog | 30–20 | 41–17 |
| Overs–unders | 58–67 | 53–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 14–22 SD in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 36.