Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting4-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Carson WhisenhuntPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Ramos homered to left center (395 feet).3–12
- 7Chapman homered to left (386 feet).3–11
- 6Devers homered to left center (369 feet), Knizner scored and Ramos scored.3–10
- 5Schmitt singled to left, Chapman scored.3–7
- 5Chapman singled to right, Devers scored, Smith scored on throwing error by right fielder Tucker, Chapman to second.3–6
- 3Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Devers scored.3–4
- 3Adames hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramos scored, Devers to third.3–3
- 3Devers hit a ground rule double, Knizner scored, Ramos to third.3–2
- 2Hoerner homered to left center (397 feet), Crow-Armstrong scored and Swanson scored.3–1
- 1Devers homered to center (410 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -130 / SF +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -119
- SF +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Carson Whisenhunt: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +29 Elo | CHC 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3035–31 | Road vs home | 31–3324th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301541 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–70 | 54–78 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 41–47 | 20–55 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 34–23 |
| Overs–unders | 65–67 | 62–70 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–8 SF in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.