Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Kyle TuckerBatting3-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Victor MederosPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Adell homered to right center (387 feet).12–1
- 7McGuire hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored.12–0
- 7Swanson doubled to left, Caissie scored, Hoerner to third.11–0
- 6Tucker homered to right center (394 feet), McGuire scored and Busch scored.10–0
- 6Busch singled to left, Castro scored, McGuire to second.7–0
- 4McGuire homered to center (389 feet), Happ scored, Hoerner scored and Swanson scored.6–0
- 3Tucker homered to right (399 feet), Busch scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML CHC -155 / LAA +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- LAA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +3 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAA: Victor Mederos: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +70 Elo | CHC 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 3rd of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3033–30 | Road vs home | 34–3320th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 145827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–68 | 67–61 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 40–45 | 11–26 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 56–35 |
| Overs–unders | 64–65 | 72–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 3–4 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.