Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Neto homered to left center (436 feet).11–5
- 10Teodosio hit sacrifice fly to center, Rengifo scored.10–5
- 10Rengifo tripled to left, Adell scored and Moore scored.9–5
- 10Moore grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Ward scored, Adell third.7–5
- 10Adell singled to center, Trout scored, Ward to second.6–5
- 6Urías singled to right, B. Harris scored.5–5
- 6Butler homered to right center (417 feet).5–4
- 5Moore singled to right, Trout scored and Adell scored, Moore to second.5–3
- 3Langeliers homered to center (427 feet).3–3
- 3Kurtz homered to left.3–2
- 1Soderstrom singled to left, Rooker scored.3–1
- 1Adell homered to left (395 feet), Schanuel scored and Ward scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML LAA -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- ATH: Elo 54.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- LAA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +33 Elo | ATH 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–34 | Road vs home | 26–3627th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 27th of 301458 | Elo rating | 146925th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–58 | 67–58 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 54–34 | 52–40 |
| Overs–unders | 70–53 | 66–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 19–16 ATH in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 35.