Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack PerkinsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kurtz homered to center (424 feet), Langeliers scored and Cortes scored.3–10
- 8Langeliers singled to left, Harris scored.3–7
- 5Soderstrom reached on infield single to third, Thomas scored, Harris to second, MacIver to third.3–6
- 5Hernaiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Kurtz scored.3–5
- 5Neto homered to left (434 feet), Teodosio scored.3–4
- 3Thomas homered to left center (433 feet), Rooker scored and Kurtz scored.1–4
- 2d'Arnaud doubled to right, Moncada scored.1–1
- 1Langeliers homered to center (405 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML LAA -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- ATH: Elo 52.9%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- LAA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.8 – 4.8 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jack Perkins: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +20 Elo | ATH 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 19th of 3026–32 | Road vs home | 24–3628th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 27th of 301463 | Elo rating | 146426th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–56 | 65–58 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 13–18 |
| Underdog | 54–32 | 52–40 |
| Overs–unders | 69–52 | 65–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 19–14 ATH in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 33.