Los Angeles Angels at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis MoralesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel reached on infield single to shortstop, Teodosio scored on throwing error by shortstop Hernaiz, Neto safe at third on error.2–7
- 8Rooker singled to center, B. Harris scored, Schuemann to third.1–7
- 8B. Harris singled to center, Hernaiz scored.1–6
- 5Rooker homered to left center (421 feet).1–5
- 3Hernaiz singled to center, Kurtz scored and Rooker scored, Soderstrom to third.1–4
- 2Neto singled to left, Rengifo scored, Neto out stretching at second.1–2
- 1Thomas homered to left (413 feet), Langeliers scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 53%
- ML LAA +105 / ATH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- ATH: Elo 55.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATH -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 5.1 – 5.4 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +8 | LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Morales: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATH +35 Elo | ATH 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATH 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATH 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.828th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 3026–33 | Road vs home | 25–3628th of 30 |
| 7th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 27th of 301460 | Elo rating | 146725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–57 | 66–58 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 54–33 | 52–40 |
| Overs–unders | 70–52 | 66–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 19–15 ATH in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 34.