Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Angels- Yoan MoncadaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rengifo singled to left, Teodosio scored.1–2
- 4Moncada homered to center (394 feet).1–1
- 3Marte singled to left, Hayes scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 53%
- ML CIN +105 / LAA -125
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- LAA: Elo 44.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- LAA -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1458 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −6 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +42 Elo | CIN 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 6th of 3031–31 | Road vs home | 33–3221st of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 145827th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–59 | 66–60 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–38 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 46–21 | 55–35 |
| Overs–unders | 50–77 | 72–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 8–0 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.