Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 12 K
Angels- Jo AdellBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lux doubled to right, Hayes scored, Benson thrown out at home.6–4
- 9Friedl hit sacrifice fly to center, Trevino scored.5–4
- 8Adell homered to left (371 feet).4–4
- 7Neto singled to left, d'Arnaud scored, Moore to second.4–3
- 7Adell homered to center (452 feet).4–2
- 5Andujar singled to center, De La Cruz scored.4–1
- 4Marte doubled to right, Andujar scored, Hays to third.3–1
- 4Andujar doubled to left, De La Cruz scored.2–1
- 2Marte homered to center (415 feet).1–1
- 1Ward singled to right, Trout scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML CIN -130 / LAA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CIN: Elo 55.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CIN -119
- LAA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.1 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +8 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +40 Elo | CIN 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 10th of 3030–31 | Road vs home | 33–3119th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 145927th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–59 | 66–59 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–38 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 46–21 | 55–34 |
| Overs–unders | 49–77 | 71–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 7–0 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.