Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4
- Victor MederosPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8McLain hit sacrifice fly to center, Hayes scored.4–1
- 5Hays hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.3–1
- 1Ward doubled to right, Schanuel scored, Trout to third.2–1
- 1Lux homered to right (387 feet), Friedl scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CIN -115 / LAA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- LAA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.8 – 4.7 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +1 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Victor Mederos: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +32 Elo | CIN 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–31 | Road vs home | 33–3019th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Elo rating | 146127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–59 | 66–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–38 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 45–21 | 55–34 |
| Overs–unders | 49–76 | 71–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 6–0 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.