Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Angels- Taylor WardBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ward scored on error, Rengifo safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Swanson.4–3
- 6Ward doubled to left, Neto scored.4–2
- 5Kelly singled to right, Tucker scored, Suzuki to second.4–1
- 5Crow-Armstrong hit sacrifice fly to right, Busch scored, Tucker to third.3–1
- 4Hoerner doubled to center, Happ scored.2–1
- 3Tucker singled to left, Shaw scored.1–1
- 1Ward homered to left center (400 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML CHC -145 / LAA +115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.3%, market 56.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -127
- LAA +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.0 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +6 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +66 Elo | CHC 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.728th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3034–30 | Road vs home | 34–3421st of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 145527th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–68 | 67–62 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 41–45 | 11–26 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 56–36 |
| Overs–unders | 65–65 | 73–56 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–4 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.