Chicago Cubs at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting2-4
- Matthew BoydPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chapman homered to left center (400 feet), Flores scored.2–5
- 5Devers singled to left, Ramos scored.2–3
- 5Ramos doubled to left, Matos scored.2–2
- 5Kelly singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored.2–1
- 4Shaw singled to left, Happ scored, Swanson to third.1–1
- 2Flores homered to left (380 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML CHC -155 / SF +130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- SF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 3.4 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −13 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +56 Elo | CHC 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3035–30 | Road vs home | 30–3324th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301543 | Elo rating | 148821st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–69 | 53–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 41–46 | 20–55 |
| Underdog | 21–23 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders | 65–66 | 62–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–7 SF in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.