Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting3-5, 4 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Giants- Luis MatosBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vázquez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, A. Jackson scored, Holliday out at second.8–15
- 8Gilbert doubled to left, Matos scored.7–15
- 8Mayo homered to left center (420 feet).7–14
- 7Smith singled to right, Devers scored, Chapman to third.6–14
- 7Devers singled to left, Gilbert scored on error and Adames scored on throwing error by left fielder Beavers, Devers to second.6–13
- 7Adames singled to left, Bailey scored, Gilbert to second.6–11
- 5Matos homered to left center (401 feet).6–10
- 5Mountcastle singled to center, J. Jackson scored and Henderson scored.6–9
- 4Smith homered to right (387 feet), Chapman scored.4–9
- 3Gilbert doubled to right, Matos scored.4–7
- 3Rivera singled to left, J. Jackson scored and Mountcastle scored, Rivera to second.4–6
- 3Mountcastle doubled to left, A. Jackson scored, J. Jackson to third.2–6
- 2Chapman hit sacrifice fly to center, Adames scored.1–6
- 2Devers singled to right, Lee scored, Adames to third.1–5
- 1Matos singled to left, Chapman scored and Devers scored, Schmitt to second.1–4
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Adames scored.1–2
- 1Chapman reached on infield single to shortstop, Lee scored, Devers to second, Adames to third.1–1
- 1Mountcastle doubled to right, Holliday scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML BAL +125 / SF -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SF: Elo 54.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +12 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +31 Elo | SF 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 25th of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.19th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 21st of 3029–37 | Road vs home | 33–3322nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 149519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–67 | 55–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–37 | 20–56 |
| Underdog | 47–30 | 35–23 |
| Overs–unders | 59–75 | 63–71 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 3–3 SF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.