Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Rob RefsnyderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Orioles- Alex JacksonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cade PovichPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8González singled to left, Anthony scored.3–2
- 5J. Jackson doubled to left, A. Jackson scored, Holliday to third.2–2
- 4Refsnyder homered to center (398 feet).2–1
- 3A. Jackson homered to center (395 feet).1–1
- 1Story homered to left center (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 64%
- ML BOS -205 / BAL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 59.9%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BOS -181
- BAL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.9 – 3.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −30 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Cade Povich: team allows 1.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +70 Elo | BOS 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 64.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3033–35 | Road vs home | 31–3625th of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 7th of 301534 | Elo rating | 149020th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–63 | 66–67 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 33–44 | 20–37 |
| Underdog | 38–19 | 46–30 |
| Overs–unders | 67–67 | 59–74 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 18–20 BAL in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 38.