Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Narváez homered to left center (414 feet), Hamilton scored.12–1
- 9Rafaela scored on a balk, Hamilton to second on a balk.10–1
- 9Rafaela scored on a balk, Hamilton to second on a balk.10–1
- 9Hamilton reached on infield single to shortstop, Lowe scored on throwing error by shortstop Volpe, Rafaela safe at third on error.9–1
- 9Rafaela singled to right, Story scored, Lowe to second.8–1
- 9Lowe singled to left, Duran scored, Story to second.7–1
- 9Duran singled to center, Anthony scored.6–1
- 5Story homered to right center (373 feet).5–1
- 4Stanton homered to right center (370 feet).4–1
- 4Bregman hit sacrifice fly to left, Hamilton scored, Narváez to third.4–0
- 4Anthony hit sacrifice fly to center, Rafaela scored, Narváez to second, Hamilton to third.3–0
- 3Story doubled to left, Narváez and Anthony scored, Bregman to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 52%
- ML BOS -120 / NYY +100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 48.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BOS -109
- NYY +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | 0 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +13 Elo | NYY 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.83rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3029–34 | Road vs home | 37–2713th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–60 | 57–71 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–42 | 45–64 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 65–64 | 61–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 22–12 NYY in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 34.