New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Trent GrishamBatting3-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Rays- Bob SeymourBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Drew RasmussenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10B. Seymour singled to center, Mangum scored.6–4
- 10Wells homered to right center (423 feet).6–3
- 10Stanton homered to left (384 feet), Volpe scored.5–3
- 9Feduccia doubled to center, Caminero scored and B. Lowe scored.3–3
- 8B. Seymour homered to right center (357 feet).3–1
- 8Grisham homered to right (343 feet).3–0
- 5Wells homered to right (409 feet).2–0
- 1Grisham homered to right (345 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 51%
- ML NYY -105 / TB -115
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- TB: Elo 48.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -104
- NYY +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.2 – 4.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +17 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Drew Rasmussen: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +8 Elo | NYY 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.213th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 9th of 3031–32 | Road vs home | 32–3119th of 30 |
| 9th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 5th of 301536 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–69 | 63–63 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 45–62 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 41–24 |
| Overs–unders | 59–66 | 54–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 20–18 TB in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 38.