New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting3-5, 1 HR, 7 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pagés homered to left (429 feet).12–8
- 7Chisholm Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Grisham scored.12–7
- 7Rice singled to right, Caballero scored, Grisham to second.11–7
- 7McMahon homered to right (372 feet).10–7
- 6Gorman homered to right (389 feet), Walker scored.9–7
- 6Rice doubled to right, Grisham scored, Wells scored and Caballero scored.9–5
- 4Rice homered to right center (429 feet), Caballero scored and Grisham scored.6–5
- 3Judge homered to center (399 feet).3–5
- 2Winn homered to left (375 feet), Pagés scored and Scott II scored.2–5
- 2Scott II singled to left, Gorman scored, Pagés to second.2–2
- 1Herrera singled to right, Burleson scored.2–1
- 1Domínguez singled to left, Rice scored, Judge to third.2–0
- 1Judge doubled to left, Grisham scored, Rice to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -145 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 3.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +6 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +17 Elo | NYY 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3028–32 | Road vs home | 35–2814th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 7th of 301528 | Elo rating | 148622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–69 | 60–63 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 42–62 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 38–24 |
| Overs–unders | 56–66 | 63–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 3–4 STL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.