New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pagés scored on Weaver wild pitch, Scott II to third on wild pitch by Weaver.4–3
- 7Pagés scored on Weaver wild pitch, Scott II to third on wild pitch by Weaver.4–3
- 7Scott II doubled to right, Walker scored, Pagés to third.4–2
- 6Winn doubled to right, Nootbaar scored.4–1
- 3Domínguez singled to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.4–0
- 1Chisholm Jr. homered to right (363 feet), Rice scored.3–0
- 1Judge grounded out to shortstop, Grisham scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML NYY -145 / STL +120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −6 | NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +26 Elo | NYY 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3027–32 | Road vs home | 35–2714th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–68 | 59–63 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 42–61 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 37–24 |
| Overs–unders | 56–65 | 63–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 2–4 STL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.