New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jake MangumBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Shane BazPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Caballero homered to left center (389 feet).13–3
- 8Mangum reached on infield single to third, Morel scored, Pereira to second.12–3
- 6Bellinger homered to right (348 feet), Judge scored.12–2
- 4Rice homered to right center (406 feet).10–2
- 4Stanton homered to right center (376 feet), Judge scored and Bellinger scored.9–2
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (382 feet).6–2
- 2Simpson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mangum scored, Fortes out at second.5–2
- 2Fortes singled to right, Pereira scored, Mangum to third.5–1
- 2Caballero homered to right (322 feet), Volpe scored.5–0
- 1Stanton homered to right center (386 feet).3–0
- 1Bellinger homered to right (381 feet).2–0
- 1Judge homered to center (429 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 54%
- ML NYY -130 / TB +110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -119
- TB +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −1 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +16 Elo | NYY 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–32 | Road vs home | 32–3019th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 6th of 301532 | Elo rating | 150417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–69 | 63–62 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 44–62 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 41–23 |
| Overs–unders | 58–66 | 53–72 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 19–18 TB in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 37.