New York Yankees at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Cody BellingerBatting1-4, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Yohel PozoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goldschmidt doubled to right, Chisholm Jr. scored.8–4
- 9Chisholm Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Judge scored, Bellinger out at second.7–4
- 9Bellinger reached on infield single to second, Caballero scored and Volpe scored, Judge to third.6–4
- 7Bellinger hit sacrifice fly to center, Grisham scored, Judge to second.4–4
- 6Pozo homered to left center (404 feet).3–4
- 5Burleson singled to right, Nootbaar scored.3–3
- 4Saggese doubled to right, Walker scored and Herrera scored.3–2
- 4Caballero singled to right, Domínguez scored, McMahon to second.3–0
- 4McMahon singled to right, Goldschmidt scored, Domínguez to third.2–0
- 4Domínguez reached on infield single to second, Chisholm Jr. scored, Goldschmidt to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML NYY -155 / STL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- STL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.6 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −2 | NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +30 Elo | NYY 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.8 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 16th of 3029–32 | Road vs home | 35–2915th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15047th of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 148323rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–69 | 60–64 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 43–62 | 22–39 |
| Underdog | 11–7 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders | 57–66 | 64–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 4–4 STL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.