Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Roman AnthonyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Anthony homered to right (370 feet), Hamilton scored.6–3
- 7Lowe doubled to right, Story scored.4–3
- 6Anthony singled to center, Hamilton scored, Narváez to second.3–3
- 5Chisholm Jr. singled to center, Judge scored, Rice to third.2–3
- 5Lowe hit sacrifice fly to center, Anthony scored.2–2
- 4Goldschmidt singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored.1–2
- 2Rice homered to right center (419 feet).1–1
- 2Hamilton stole second, Rafaela scored on throwing error by catcher Rice, Hamilton advanced to third.1–0
- 2Rafaela scored on throwing error by catcher Rice, Hamilton stole third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML BOS +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 54.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- BOS +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.5 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +28 Elo | NYY 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 20th of 3027–34 | Road vs home | 37–2510th of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15039th of 30 |
| 7th of 301525 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–60 | 57–69 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 31–42 | 45–62 |
| Underdog | 36–18 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 64–63 | 60–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 20–12 NYY in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 32.